THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL WITH THE WORLD
The deal, signed on Tuesday 07/14/2015 morning between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council members + Germany, headed by the USA,basically stops, for 10 years, the Iranian rush toward a nuclear bomb in exchange of legitimising the Iranian nuclear industry for medical, industrial and research uses They also agreed on the pace of lifting the sanction and the time of the end of the imposed weapon embargo on Iran .
Since the main critic of Israel or Saudi Arabia about the deal is not the nuclear part but the pace of lifting the sanction and the time of the end of the imposed weapon embargo the nuclear part is “reasonable’ and 10 years , in the current chaos in the Middle East and the internal pressure in Iran, are a very long time and almost impossible to predict. Basically the deal is a victory of Hassan Ruhani, the moderate President over Aiatullah Ali Khamanai, the hardliner “Supreme leader” so it can lead to a profound change in Iran over the next 10 years.
The sharp decline in oil and energy prices means that Iran will still have enormous economic problems . . There is a regional concern in the Sunni Arab countries as well as in Israel that Iran will now pour money on its allies, Syria, Hizbullah, the Yemeni Houthis and the Shiite communities in the Gulf Emirates and inflame the tensions and the violence in The Middle East but it also ensure that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey will pour even more money on their allies and proxies and it will boost and inflame the Sunni -Shiaa conflict much more. In Israeli eyes it suppose to be a main Sunni Arab concern and most of the Iranian money will go to the mutual slaughter of Arabs killing each other – Israel is only a footnote in that religious war although sunnis and Shiites both hate Israel but much more each other.
Officially Israel is speaking in another tone as if the deal is an existential threat to Israel but it is much more to the isolated Shia communities. (Hizballah, Houthis etc’ ) surrounded by a vast Sunni majority. Iran has a lot of minorities and it is most likely that the Sunni countries will manipulate those minorities against the Iranian regime.
Following the Iranian nuclear deal the threat of Iran as a nuclear power is delayed at least for 10 years but the Middle East is now much more fragile, the deal will inflame the chaos in the Middle East, a serious risk for the Sunni countries.
So basically nothing is changed in the region .
Related topics ;