THE CURRENT STAGE OF THE MIDDLE EAST
It is now over a year, since the Islamic State seized Mosul and most of the Sunni Arabs inhabited areas of Iraq, in 06/2014, since USA put in place its alleged strategy to cope with ISIS. The main principles of the US strategy were :
A. An Arab coalition led by USA air power will conduct continuous air strikes against ISIS infrastructure and provide air support to local forces fighting on the ground.
B. the locale forces will be comprised from the Iraqi army, Kurdish militias and so called “moderate Arabs” trained by USA .
C. USA will also support the anti-ISIS forces with intelligence, arms and weapon, training and Special Operations experts.
14 months later the general picture is grim.
1. – In Iraq the main fighting groups how are able to contain ISIS are Shia militias supported by Iran in Southern Iraq and Kurdish “Peshmerga” forces in the North of Iraq and Eastern Syria. Both are able to stop ISIS and protect their populations but not to overcome ISIS and to seize control on areas populated by Sunni Arabs,
2. – Since pro Iranian Shia militias are so dominant in the fight against Sunni ISIS all the Sunni Arab countries actually withdrew from the coalition although not officially.
3. – USA struck just two weeks ago a deal with Turkey to allow the usage of the Turkish Incirlik Airbase against ISIS while Turkey is renewing its own air campaign against the Kurds PKK fighters in Eastern Turkey. No doubt most of the Kurds fell they were betrayed by America and President Barack Obama .
4. – Two new wars breached out in the past 14 months – The Sunni-Shia war in Yemen and the Turkish-Kurdish war in Eastern and Southern Turkey.
5. – The programme of forming a Moderate Arab pro-American militia in Syria is a total fiasco. The number of qualified recruits who finish the trainings is extremely small numbered in dozens and not in thousands. Furthermore – it turned out that the battlefields of Syria and Iraq trained way more than any American training camp in Jordan or elsewhere. The performances of the pro American militia in Syria is very poor and airpower was diverted to protect them from all other militias in Syria.
6. – The territory controlled by ISIS or Jabhat al-Nusra was significantly expended. Despite some setbacks in Kobane and Hassakeh , in the Kurdish areas of Northern Syria, or in Tikrit and Fallujah in central Iraq ISIS advanced to Palmyra and Jabhat al-Nusra made significant gains in Northern Syria and around Damascus,
The areas controlled by Bashar Assad in Syria are now shrinking to the Alawite mountains on the Mediterranean and to Damascus in the South. The crucial battle is about establishing a safe corridor between Damascus and Tartus and Latakia, the capital of the Alawite province.
The Hizbullah from Lebanon is trying, now over a month, to uproot Jabhat al Nusra from the Qalamoun mountains, on the main and only free road between Damascus and Latakia, specificaly around the former Christian village of Zabadani, now held by Sunni Islamists. Hundreds of Huzbullah fighters were already killed in the battle of Zabadani without subjection.
Islamic State militants, on 08/05/2015, seized control of a key town, Al-Qaryatain, in the central Syrian province of Homs overnight after heavy clashes with forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, a monitor group said on Thursday 08/06/2015. They said the town held strategic importance because of its location along a road linking the ancient city of Palmyra, which has been held by ISIS militants since May 2015, with Qalamoun region in Damascus province.
“The control of Al-Qaryatain allows ISIS to link the areas under its control in the eastern countryside of Homs with the areas under its control in the eastern countryside of Qalamoun, and allows it to transfer fighters and supplies between the two regions,” Abdel Rahman, the head of the monitor group, said.
* To sum it up – the USA strategy against ISIS is a total failure. Two more wars breached out in the Middle East, The USA led coalition does not exist as a Western-Arab coalition, The Islamic militants are on the offensive and clost to cut off Damascus from Tartus and Latakia and by that to force Bashar Assad to decide whether he will continue to claim Syria’s legitimacy from Damascus or will he move to Latakia in order to form a new Alawite State .
Related topics ;
07/2015 – THE THREAT FROM SYRIA’S AL-SAFIRA COMPOUND
06/2015 – U.S LACKS FULL STRATEGY !?
06/2015 – CONFUSING MEETING IN PARIS
05/2015 – ISLAMIC STATE OVERSHADOWS THE MIDDLE EAST
04/2011 – THE BLACK HOLES OF THE MIDDLE EAST
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