– THE IRANI NEIGHBOR
The announcement made by Saudi Arabia, with Egyptian consent, on Friday 07/14/2006, two days after the break of war in Lebanon and on the eve of the Arab League convening on the issue of the war, was most unconventional in the political agenda of the Middle East where, automatically, Israel is blamed for every occurrence:” factors in Lebanon and whoever stands behind them are the sole bearers of responsibility”. This announcement, adding the names Iran and Hizbullah, could have been drafted by any ISRAELI right-wing politician. This was the primary expression of a possible permutation in the Middle East as a result of the war in Iraq.
Prior to the Iraqi war king Abdullah tried to warn President Bush. His opinion was that overthrowing of Saddam Hussein’s regime and installing a sort of democratic government in Iraq would bring upon yet another Shiite state with major Irani influence and installing a Shiite axis from Iran to Lebanon; an axis which will thrive under the shadow of Irani nuclear capabilities in progress, ruling over endless energy resources and a main factor of threat in the Middle East. In king Abdullah’s view not a democratic dawn will set on the Middle East but a long term crisis.
The enforced elections in Iraq, due to political ignorance of the Americans, on 01/20/2005 gave the Shiites an absolute majority. Nuri el Maliki, which spent twenty three years in Iran as a political exile, became the Prime Minister with, naturally, stronger bonds and relations with Iran rather then the West. Iraq became, in fact, a Shiite state with some minorities. The police and army forces where manned mainly by Shiites some of which, at the same time, where members of Shiite militias like “Mahdi’s Army” or “ Bader Corp ” with Irani orientation. Shiite death teams, some of which acted with the support or framework of the security forces, took revenge on the Sunnites executing religious cleansing in wide areas of Iraq. Time came for Iraqi Sunnites to become exiles in their homeland through the religious warfare in several provinces. King Abdullah’s nightmare vision became a reality. Iran and the Shiites are the once to profit while the big losers in Iraq are the USA and the Sunnite Arabs. Iran, with its’ race to nuclear exploitation, cast a shadow over the region and became a political, financial and religious problem in the Middle East.
“ Iraq has two conquerors: Iran and the USA. We propose to open negotiations with US in order to end the occupation… we shall never submit to Al Qaeda”. This surprising announcement was given, on video, by Ibrahim al Shimari, spokesmen for the largest Sunnite guerilla organization – The Iraqi Moslem Army- in Iraq Tuesday, 10/17/2006. This announcement is yet another natural expression of fear from the rising power of Iran and its’ proxies. This is the natural continuation to Saudi Arabian standpoint. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, at least for a time. Without Sunnites in the Middle East one cannot stop Al Qaeda and without the USA it is impossible to stop Iran neither in Iraq nor in the Middle East. The time is ripe for a treaty between losers.
Fear from Iran and its proxies, mainly from those fuelled by religious vigor and getting closer to nuclear use, pushes aside fear from Al Qaeda and the obsessive dealing with the Palestinian conflict. There is a new enemy who threatens all and in effort to overpower him it becomes legitimate to make one hand with the “big Satan” US and the “small Satan” Israel. Israel might find herself in one strategic boat not only with the US but with many of the surrounding Arab states.
Thus is enough reason to come out of the shock of the war in Lebanon, stabilize the government, enlarge its’ base and produce political agenda. There are opportunities but the price of missing those opportunities is ever so high.
* Related topics –