SYRIA: PEACE WITHOUT PARTNERS
Just few days ago, on 01/14/2016, a “Unity” government deal was struck between the rival Tobruk and Tripoli regimes, backed by the international community, was formed in Libya aimed, first of all, to fight the Islamic State stronghold on 200 k”m of the Mediterranean coast and dividing Libya in the middle.
Some critics cite reports that the UN representative who helped broker the agreement, Bernardino Leon, was secretly negotiating a high-paying job with the United Arab Emirates – UAE, which backs the Tobruk government.
The agreement still has to be approved by the House of Representatives in Tobruk (which has 10 days to endorse the news government) as well as the General National Congress in Tripoli, which remains divided over the issue.
At the same time growing efforts are made to convene, in the first week of February 2016, in Vienna, Austria, a Peace Talks forum for Syria between the Assad Regime, backed by Russia and Iran, and so called “Moderate’ rebels” backed by USA. Despite the division of opinions between the superpowers and other participant US is putting a lot of pressure to hold the scheduled meeting. The basic idea is that once there is a recognized government in Libya, Syria, Iraq and/or Yemen there will be also, in the next stage, a political platform to eradicate the Islamic State or alike in the Arab World.
Their is no doubt that even in the best scenario it will take a very long time to overcome the differences and disputes between most of the players, the main controversy between Sunnis and Shiites is the main obstacle for any solution, during the time, well over a year, there will be a change of approach in the USA following the coming elections and that the idea of ISIS, a deduct Islamic Caliphate for all Muslims in the world, is already very common in all Muslim communities in the world including Europe. ISIS is already a global phenomena and carried out attacks, during 2015, in 20 countries including French and USA. Nowadays ISIS overshadows Al Qaeda.
To sum it up there is no alternative to the diplomatic path but I.S.I.S phenomena, the crumbling of the Arab World, the emigration crisis which is changing, culturally and demographically, Europe and the big conflict between Sunnis and Shiites are just gearing up. We still have ahead long years, at least a decade, of turmoil, bloodshed, chaos and dramatic changes before any negotiated regional stable, solid, last and viable.solution can be agreed upon,
** The UN envoy halted, on Wednesday 02/03/2016, his attempts to conduct Syrian peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland ,after the Syrian army, backed by Russian air strikes, advanced against rebel forces north of Aleppo, choking opposition supply lines from Turkey to the city. Actually yet another virtual peace talk came to a dead end in the Middle East .
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