The 21st Century Phenomenon




Iran is suffering from an internal economical crisis which might threat the current regime. Iran needs to slow down and reduce some of its economical support to affiliated groups in the Middle East and elsewhere.

The main Iranian dilemma is timing – how to avoid a premature total military and economical confrontation with its enemies when Iran is yet without sufficient military nuclear technology, venerable and unprepared. Since Iran’s nuclear program suffers from many difficulties Iran needs much more time.  

The war in Iraq went out of hand not only for the USA but also for Iran. The sectarian violence changed the dimension of the war from an IRAQI uprising, with Iranian support, aginst the US, to a Shiites-Sunnites confrontation which placed Iran, prematurely and against its own interest, as a concrete threat to the Arab Sunnite World.

The summer 2006 war with Israel in Lebanon emphasizes how a total uncontrolled military confrontation and war can breach out in the Middle East when Iran still needs few more years for its nuclear military program. The Iranian success in undermining USA position in the Middle  East is too fast and too much, accelerating the region to a total confrontation with Iran and threaten the Iranian timing.

Therefore the new Iranian policy is to calm the region, to seek for cooperation with Arab Sunnites and to avoid any unnecessary confrontation that can endanger its nuclear program.

A. Iran offered several times a regional Gulf defense treaty – so far the Gulf Arab state rejected the offers, mainly because of mistrust, but they are still on the table.

B. On 05/03/2007 a summit meeting was held between the Iranian President Mahmoud Ajmadinejad and Saudi King Abdallah in Jeddah.  Despite the mutual mistrust Iran and Saudi Arabia managed to reach a deal about LEBANON, which contained and defused the unrest in LEBANON. Lebanon is divided over the investigation and the authorization by U.N of an international court to judge Rafik Hariris’ assassin suspects and the election of a new President in Lebanon scheduled to the 09/25/2007. Eventually, that deal enabled the Lebanese government to confront “Fatah al-Islam” in Nahr al-Bared close to the Northern city of Tripoli. (see – Iran-SAUDI AXIS )

C.  Iran resumed on 07/24/2007, in Baghdad, the IRAQI Security talks with USA, despite the hostility between Iran and US, in order to ease the sectarian violence in Iraq in the Sunnite-Shiite axis, which is counter-productive in the long run for Iranian strategy and leads to an Iranian-Arab unnecessary conflict.

D. On 08/21/2007 Iran released, on bail, Haleh Esfandiari, 67, a US citizen accused of spying.

E. On 08/29/2007 the radical Shiia’ cleric Moqtada Sadr in Baghdad froze the activities of his “Mahdi Army” militia for six months. The official reason was the bloody confrontation with another Shiite militia – the “Bader Corp”, a day earlier, in the holy Shiite city of Karbala, which claimed the lives of more than 50 people. That new move will, no doubt, ease the sectarian violence between Shiites and Sunnites in Iraq and is directed from Iran. Coalition forces will be freer to tackle Al Qaeda which is the main cause of Shiite-Sunnite confrontation in Iraq.  

F. UN nuclear watchdog IAEA said on 08/30/2007 that Iran has agreed to a plan aimed at clearing up questions about its controversial nuclear activities.

G. On 09/01/2007 the spiritual leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointed General Mohammed Ali Jafari as the new commander of the IRANIAN Revolutionary Guard to replace the aggressive General Yahya Rahim Safawi who led the Revolutionary  Guards for the last decade.  General Yahya Rahim Safawi was responsible for the tremendous success in undermining US in the Middle  East but also in escalating the situation toward a regional premature confrontation.

Summary ;

A. Iran is not giving up its primary goals and is not changing its global strategy but is, clearly, slowing down its measures and is putting more attention not to confront the Arab Sunnite counties in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia.

B. Iran needs much more time to accomplish its military nuclear plans.

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