The 21st Century Phenomenon





No like in other countries, a political crisis in Pakistan has very dangerous meaning to the rest of the world. In no time the Pakistani nuclear bomb can be turned to be an Islamic nuclear bomb in the hands of a most extreme Islamic regime, possibly in the hand of the Global Jihad, as the situation in Pakistan is extremely fragile.

After General Pervez Musharraf dismissed, on 03/09/2007, the Chief Pakistani judge Iftikhar Chaudhry and put him under home arrest until 05/05/2007, the Pakistani regime faces a stiff secular opposition of lawyers, Journalist and Human Rights organizations that are very effective in weakening Pervez Musharraf’s legitimacy in Pakistan.

For some time, especially after the Lal Mosque crisis from 07/2007, Pakistan is in CIVIL WAR between Islamic pro Taliban militants and the military regime led by Pakistan ruler General Pervez Musharraf, who is also the Army Chief Commander. The Pakistani Army is performing poorly in this confrontation.

The risk of an “IRANIAN SCENARIO”, when Iranian liberals joined hands, temporarily, with Islamic Militants in order to get rid of the Shah and led, eventually, to the Islamic revolution in 01/1979 – is a substantial dangerous possibility in Pakistan. A change in Pakistan is almost inevitable. Indeed an alliance of 86 parliament members of Islamic parties, the MMA, and the PML-N party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, have resigned from Pakistan’s national parliament and provincial assemblies in a protest against the presidential election scheduled to next Saturday’s 10/06/2007.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf met on 07/27/2007, the key secular opposition leader, former female Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, in Abu Dhabi. Benazir Bhutto is heading the largest party in the Pakistani Parliament – Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) with 81 seats out of 342. Her support can almost ensure Pervez Musharraf’s reelection as Pakistan president and legitimize his regime.  

Benazir Bhutto conditioned any share of power in a political deal that Pervez Musharraf will give up one of his two posts: the supreme commander of the Army or the presidency. Although no official announcement was made it is clear that the two leaders reached a deal.

After the meeting new presidential election was set to next Saturday, 10/06/2007. Pervez Musharraf reshuffled the high command of the Army in order to ensure the Army’s loyalty.  He also declared that, if elected, he will step down from his post as the Army Chief and, on 10/02/2007, named his successor to take over the Army, former head of intelligence – ISI, Lt Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani. Benazir Bhutto already said that she intends to return to Pakistan on 10/10/2007. Benazir Bhutto was granted amnesty from all charges against her in Pakistan and it is most likely that she will be nominated as Pakistan’s next PM legitimizing the Pakistani regime in Pakistan and abroad as well. Benazir Bhutto also said she will allow NATO-ISAF forces in Afghanistan, on certain conditions, to carry out air strikes against Taliban position in Pakistan in order to consolidate the war on terror.

There is a good chance that the reshuffle in Pakistan will bring a new more legitimized regime to Pakistan, to stable, relatively, the country and consolidate, in some degree, the war on terror.

A more important possible outcome would be to ensure, for the next years, that the Pakistani nuclear bomb will not fall in the hands of Al Qaeda.

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