THE AFGHAN MESS
Despite efforts to start and show some progress in alleged peace talks with some elements in the conglomerate of Afghan insurgency, and some concessions made by NATO-ISAF to proceed with the as if negotiation (see – Peace-Talks 10.06.10), the head of the Taliban, the greatest and most influential branch of the Afghan insurgency, Mullah Omar, said, on Monday 11/15/2010, in a statement released to media outlets and Jihadi websites on the eve of the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha, that there is no prospect of peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government (see – The Impostor).
Amid the impact of BoB Woodward’s book, Obamas Wars, in which he suggested that the US president Barack Obama is focused not on winning the war in Afghanistan or containing Al Qaeda but, primarily, on leaving the country, a new plan handed over by the top USA commander Gen. David Petraeus to NATO summit in Lisbon, Portugal, to withdraw gradually from Afghanistan, beginning in summer 2011, according the US President Obama’s guidelines (see – Petraeus W Plan). Adding the latest remarks of the British head of the armed forces Gen. Sir David Richards that “Al Qaeda Cannot be beaten” the Taliban and alike have no reason to seriously proceed with peace talks. In their perspective the Western Powers are fed up, Sneaking-out from Afghanistan anyhow and the time is on their side.
Afghan president Hamid Karzai is, no doubt, the most sophisticated, shrewd and influential player on the Afghan scene. Unlike all other players Hamid Karzai is the only one who really understands the Western society and, at the same time, the Afghan mentality inside out. His base of power in Afghanistan is based on the Afghan tradition of endless agreements, understandings and arrangements with endless tribal elders, war lords and drug barons often to the dismay of his Western allies (see – Afghan Ballet).
Hamid Karzai already identified long time ago the cooling, now the collapse of the political will and determination of Europe and USA to fight in Afghanistan (see – Europe Commitment). Unlike NATO or USA he will be there, in Afghanistan, to bear all the consequences while Gen David Petreaus will return to USA (and maybe contest for the USA presidency). Like Mullah Omar Hamid Karzai senses the imminent future and have no choice but to line up with the Afghan peoples against the occupant NATO-ISAF. Therefore he said, on Saturday 11/13/2010, in an interview to Washington Post, that USA must reduce the visibility and intensity of its military operations in Afghanistan and end the increased US Special Operations forces night raids that aggravate Afghans and could exacerbate the Taliban insurgency, slamming Gen. Petraeus strategy.
It seems that Hamid Karzai does not want to be an American in Kabul but an Afghan in Afghanistan and wants much more support for his own army and police so he will be the most powerful “war lord” in Afghanistan in a position that all other players in Afghanistan will come to terms with him. The Taliban already said, times and again, they are ready to negotiate peace and power sharing deal if and only after the last NATO-ISAF soldier will leave the country.