Following the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, earlier in January 2011, riots and unrest were expected in all Arab countries. Nevertheless the intensiveness and the scale of the riots in Egypt surprised everybody, including the Egyptian internal security apparatuses.
Both countries enjoyed in the last years an economic growth of over 4% a year but it turned out that economic growth is not enough if it comes with large unemployment, visible and large scale corruption and mounting food prices. In Tunisia it was the ruling family of former president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was in the epicenter of Tunisian corruption. In Egypt it was the economic technocrat cycle around Gamal ‘Jimmy’ Mubarak, the son of President Hosni Mubarak, who tightened his grip on Egypt and was designated to replace his 84 old father, which is not the political tradition in Egypt. Although Hosni Mubarak himself was not considered as “corrupt” his tendency to hand over the presidency to his son in so called “elections” in which the ruling party candidate wins always over 90% of the votes was the focus of the public anger in Egypt.
In boss countries Tunisia and Egypt years of political oppression left the opposition without leadership and transferred the public anger to anarchy, large scale looting and diminished, eventually, the chance for more substantial reforms. Despite fears that the well organized and determined radical Islamic opposition will take advantage of the situation and raise to power in both countries they failed to seize the opportunity because their leaders were targeted first by the authorities. If there is a glimpse of hope for a more moderate Middle East it is the double failure of Islamists to gain power in Islamic countries and that the revolutions were not against USA, the Western Democracies or Israel but strictly about economy, internal reforms and political freedom, which is the anti-thesis to political Islam.
Eventually the Tunisian revolution ended with the transition of power amide the elite themselves. In Egypt the revolution cause the transition of power from the economic technocracy related and affiliated to Jimmy Mubarak to the security establishment of army and intelligence officers and, unlike Tunisia, Egypt is leaning toward a military autocracy. Although Hosni Mubarak retains his position it is the end of Mubarak’s regime and Mubarak’s period. Giving the basic problems of Egypt and the Middle East he did a relatively remarkable job but failed to retire in time, a few years ago.
It is estimated the new regime in Egypt will continue its dependency and military relations with SA and with Israel but not on the level of close, even intimate, coordination and cooperation, especially over the Iranian issue.
USA is delivering a confusing massage. In 06/2009 during the violent crackdown on protestors in Iran US was seeking negotiation with the Iranian radical regime and, practically, turned its back to the Iranian masses. In Tunisia, just three weeks ago, USA referred to the unrest as an “internal affair” of Tunisia. In Egypt USA abandoned its close ally, a stabilizing force and a reliable mediator between the Arabs, the Palestinians and Israel lecturing and patronizing the region about democracy. In the Middle East the events are dramatic and unexpected but they never end with more democracy. Generally they end with more bloodshed and another autocracy (see – Democratic Pranks ).
MUBARAK LEFT CAiRO TO SHARM EL-SHEIKH
**THE EGYPTIAN ARMY GRASPS POWER**
* On early 07/2013, following mass demonstrations in Egypt organized, allegedly, by a group of young Egyptians calling themselves “Tamaroud” (rebellion in Arabic) through the web and the social networks, and supported by all other opposition groups, the Egyptian Army, led by General Abdel Fatah Sisi, ousted the elected Muslims Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi and his regime and nominated an interim civilian government (see – EGYPTS III REVOLUTION ).