2011 SYRIAN UNREST
The Alawite minority regime of Syria is no doubt much more brutal and oppressive then the Libyan regime and way more than the Egyptian of Hosni Mubarak and extremely corrupted. All the wealth of Syria is, eventually, in the hands of the ruling family or ruling circle, most of them Alawites. They already demonstrated their cruelty in the Hama Massacre in 02/1982. There is a genuine hate of the wide Sunni majority of Syria toward the Alawite sect of about 9% of the population in Syria, considered by almost all Muslims, including large parts of the Shiaa faith, as infidels. For generation the Alawites in Syria were the most despised community in Syria.
Syria is also a country with a record of supporting terror in Lebanon against political opponents (see – UN-STL), in Jordan, in Iraq and of course in Israel. Syria is a close ally to Iran, a partner to Iran in efforts to arm the Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Hamas in Gaza. The Syrian army is equipped with chemical war heads for its huge stock of rockets from all kinds and is looking, actively, to obtain military nuclear capacity in cooperation with North Korea and its close ally Iran (see – Bathna-Bombing ).
Syria was in the last decades an outpost of Iran in the Mediterranean and the bridge between Iran and the Hizbullah in Lebanon. Just recently Syria cemented and strengthened its military relations with Iran when they signed, on 02/22/2011, a military naval agreement which, in the bottom line, enables the Iranian navy to establish a permanent navy presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, with supply and maintenance provided by the Syrian navy and crews to be replaced via air from Iran from time to time (see – IRan’s Momentum). Syria was and still is a constant threat to their neighbors and a real source of instability in the boiling Middle East.
So far it was Iran and their Syrian ally who were the great beneficiaries of the MEAS”T CHAOS. Despite all mentioned above and the recent killing of Syrian citizens by their own regime nowadays, USA sent a new ambassador to Syria in 01/2011, on a temporary nomination and, so far, did not denounce in the strongest terms the harsh methods of the Syrian regime against their own people – not to mention any sort of sanctions or any European meaningful response.
The cracking of the “wall of fear” in Syria, in mid 03/2011, and the growing unrest despite extremely hard measures against the protesters, have the potential to form the most significant strategic change in the Middle East. Should the majority Sunni protesters succeed in shaping the future of Syria its first outcome will be to block the access of the Iranian navy to the Eastern coast of the Mediterranean and its cooperation with Syria. It is most likely that Syria will abandon the Shiaa Bow from Iran to the Mediterranean and reintegrate into the Sunni Arab world, where it is supposed to be naturally since Syria is the cradle of Arab nationalism and Damascus one of the most important political centers of Sunni Islam since the early day of Islam in the beginning of the 8th century.
A regime change in Syria will be a major blow for Iran and will reset the relations between Iran and the Sunni Arab countries when Iran is in a much weaker position.
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