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THE MEAS”T WARS

Right now, late May 2011, all the Middle East is gripped in a long series of wars, armed conflicts and violent unrest.

In Libya the former Othman (Turkish) provinces of Cyrenaica, with its capital Benghazi, in the East and Tripolitania in the West are engaged in a full scale tribal LIbyan Civil- War. The western powers seized the opportunity to get rid of their longtime foe, the Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi, who like all Arab rulers, runs the country as a family business and was involved in terror in Europe for years. They portray his opponents as “democrats” and under the excuse of preventing a coming massacre are now handling a war against Gaddafi’s regime. There is not yet any sign that the Libyan civil war is about to be overpowered by any side in the conflict. The daily ongoing bloodshed and the crumbling of basic law and order will eventually take its toll in human life way higher than the alleged prevented massacre, not to mention that Gaddafi’s enemies are preparing a “Middle Eastern” revenge should they, with the help of NATO, prevail. For the moment we have no clue who will rule Libya a year ahead.

Following the turmoil in the Middle East sectarian unrest in Syria already claimed the life of over 1000 people and the brutal Syrian crackdown is just mounting. It is almost impossible to predict who will be in power in Syria in May 2012 (see -SYRIAN 2011 UNREST ).

Yemen is sliding fast to a tribal civil war after the president Ali Abdullah Saleh refused once again to sign a power transition deal negotiated and mediated through the Arab Gulf Emirates. Powerful tribes are now fighting tribes loyal to the president in the streets of Sanaa. In the North the Shiaa Saada Rebels are waiting for their opportunity and in the South local separatist are fighting to re-divide Yemen between North and South. Yemen is facing now a growing bloodshed and an uncertain future. In between Al Qaeda is gaining more ground. We do not know if Yemen will be the same country in the next year, certainly not who will run the country and how.

In nearby Sudan, which was recently divided officially between South Sudan and North Sudan, the South Sudanese newly formed army is fighting local rebels and North Sudan sent its army to capture the oil rich area and the town of Abyei, originally supposed to be part of Southern Sudan. In that part of the world there is no reliable information but the casualties are always numbered in hundreds of thousands. In the next year both parts of Sudan can expect but wars, bloodshed and hunger (see -Dangerous SUDAN ).

Egypt’s economy is deteriorating as its gas export was crippled by the Bedouins in Sinai Peninsula and tourists are not coming. The country is now controlled by an interim Military council and the Islamist, mainly the Muslims Brotherhood, the best organized and more disciplined political power in Egypt, are gaining ground. Their candidate Abdel Moneim Abul-Futuh has a real prospect to be the next Egyptian president after the scheduled elections in 09/2011. It is impossible to predict what will be the political future attitude of Egypt in the next year but there are a lot of concerns (see – EGYPTS CLOUDS ).

All Arab regimes are now under political threat following the new American policy to focus on democracy and human rights in the Arab world as described by President Barak Obama in his speech in the U.S State Department on 05/19/2011. Basically the speech is an ultimatum to all non democratic regimes in the Middle East to change themselves. It is just a wild conjecture to imagine the Middle East 12 months ahead. Uncertainty now overshadows the Middle East and no country, including Israel, can risk its security assets in the non forgiving political atmosphere of the region. Many hope the New Arab-World in the next year will be more open and democratic but there is also a real and substantial prospect of regional chaos, growing radicalization, including Islamic radicalization, ongoing bloodshed and oppressive regimes.

 

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