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THE INGREDIENTS OF THE MIDDLE EAST

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Some call the series of Arab revolutions of 2011 the Arab Spring. For now the spring is looking more as a cold winter with radicals Islamists challenging the shape of the Middle East future. But basically the Middle East turmoil is a redefinition of the Arab world, its national identities, the relation between the elites and the masses and the relation between Islam and modern statehood. The power of the masses with their genuine feellings and aspirations is now the best indication for the future (see – New Arab-World ).

 But basically the Middle East turmoil is a redefinition of the Arab world, its national identities, the relation between the elites and the masses and the relation between Islam and modern statehood. The power of the masses with their genuine feellings and aspirations is now the best indication for the future..

Syria of Bashar Assad is ruled by a coalition of minorities – Christians and Druze led by the Alaouites, together about 45% of Syria’s population. The opposition is comprised from Sunni Muslim Arabs and Kurds which were pushed from the circles of power in Syria. It is a realistic scenario that a year ahead the relatively secular Syria regime will be replaced with a more religious Sunni government with strong influence of the Muslims Brotherhood, the Druze and Alaouites will be persecuted and the Christian will flee the country as they do all over the Middle East when political Islam is on the rise (see –MEas”t Christians 2011 ).

More than 70% of the Jordanian population are Palestinians with strong family ties to the Palestinian West Bank. The more the masses in Jordan have a say the more the Palestinian identity of Jordan surfaces challenging the Hashemite identity of Jordan. Although the Jordanian regime seems to be stable, like the Egyptian, Syrian or Libyan regime just a few months ago, it is not an imaginary scenario that Jordan might become a third Palestinian state, aside the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and the Hamas mini-state in Gaza Strip (see -Two Palestines). If so the prospect of a Palestinian confederation with Jordan, the West Bank with or without Gaza Strip is a realistic possibility .

South Yemen, with Aden as its capital, was an independent state up to 1993, when they were forced by a bloody war to unite with the North. A separatist movement is operating in the South for over a decade. Nowadays Yemen is in a total chaos. Shiites in the North, the Saada Rebels, pro Al Qaeda elements in Hadramaut in the South East and in Abyan in the Mid South are now holding effective control on towns and villages (see – Abyan 08.30.11). The Sunni tribal federations – Hashid and Akil fight each other, as Akil supports the president Ali Abdullah Saleh. In this chaotic situation the reformation of South Yemen as a new independent state, like South Sudan, is likely to happen.

Although for the moment the Libyan rebels have the upper hand and they are supported by NATO and USA the LIbyan Civil- War is yet far from over and the struggle for power between the Western tribes of Tripolitania and the Eastern tribes of Cyrenaica is, so far, undecided. So is the conflict between Radical Islamists and the new leadership of Libya. For the moment pro Gaddafi forces in the Bani Walid in the South and in Sirte on the Mediterranean repelled the attacks on their strongholds, they are regrouping, re-adjust themselves to the new reality and heading to guerilla war. Without massive help from western powers the split of Libya to two states, one in the West and one in the East, is a realistic possibility (see also – Gaddafis Collapse ).

In the failing so called democracy of Iraq the Kurds already control a well functioning successful autonomy of their own inspiring Kurds in Iran, Syria and Turkey to seek their independence too. As Iranians interfere in Iraq aside the Shiite community and Saudi Arabia supports the Sunni community in the context of the growing conflict in the Middle East between Sunna and Shiaa, the disintegration of Iraq to its ethnical and religious components is still the nightmare of the region. As the turmoil and chaos in the Middle East grows and continues the risk of crumbling of Iraq is even higher (see also – IRAQS conglomerate ).

The declaration of South Sudan, the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq and the split of the Palestinian Authority to two deferent political identities are the first signs that not only the regimes in the Middle East face reshaping but the borders of the region, drawn in 1923, will be redesigned too.

 

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